順酐成本壓力日益凸顯。進(jìn)入6月，順酐原料跌勢(shì)暫止，且又陸續(xù)出現(xiàn)上漲機(jī)會(huì)，正丁烷漲幅略窄，而苯法工藝原料優(yōu)勢(shì)大大萎縮，且有明顯上漲，雖然后續(xù)漲勢(shì)難持續(xù)，但是對(duì)于當(dāng)前價(jià)低的順酐來(lái)講，成本面壓力不斷提升，當(dāng)前順酐兩種工藝平均虧損在200元/噸附近，因此成本面壓力或暫緩工廠繼續(xù)低出意愿，市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)低價(jià)概率降低。
The production cost pressure of maleic anhydride is increasingly prominent. In June, the decline of raw materials for maleic anhydride production stopped temporarily, and there were opportunities to rise again. The increase of n-butane was slightly narrow, while the advantages of raw materials for benzene process were greatly reduced, and the price had a significant rise. Although the follow-up rise was difficult to sustain, the pressure on the cost of maleic anhydride, which is currently low in price, continued to rise. At present, the average loss of the two maleic anhydride production processes is around 200 yuan / ton, so the cost of maleic anhydride is high Local pressure may delay the willingness of factories to continue to lower, and the probability of low price in the market will be reduced.
低價(jià)刺激商家入市。因在一季度春節(jié)前后，部分商家有積極入市表現(xiàn)， 但是3月份以后行情不及預(yù)期，因此商家持倉(cāng)壓力較大，因此在順酐下跌過(guò)程中，多數(shù)商家及下游謹(jǐn)慎建倉(cāng)情緒明顯，而當(dāng)前順酐運(yùn)行新低，且工廠陸續(xù)出現(xiàn)成本壓力，部分商家建倉(cāng)意愿提升，陸續(xù)有補(bǔ)倉(cāng)表現(xiàn)，且一手商能拿到更為優(yōu)惠的，也將繼續(xù)緩解主力工廠的內(nèi)貿(mào)銷售壓力，對(duì)于也有一定支撐。
Low prices stimulate businesses to enter the market. Due to the positive market entry performance of some businesses around the Spring Festival in the first quarter, However, after March, the market was lower than expected, so the pressure of business positions was greater. Therefore, during the decline of maleic anhydride, most businesses and downstream companies were cautious in building positions. At present, the price of maleic anhydride is running to a new low, and the cost pressure of factories is gradually emerging. Some businesses are willing to build positions, and they are willing to fill positions. Moreover, the first-hand businesses can get more favorable prices, which will continue to ease The domestic sales pressure of the main factories also has some support for the price.
非主流產(chǎn)區(qū)穩(wěn)價(jià)意愿明顯。5月中旬開(kāi)始的此輪大幅下跌，主要是主產(chǎn)區(qū)山東地區(qū)領(lǐng)跌，其余市場(chǎng)處于跟跌態(tài)勢(shì)，但是因苯法工藝目前可利用產(chǎn)能小，雖然走貨不暢，但是持倉(cāng)壓力不大，因此在順酐運(yùn)行新低，且成本壓力出現(xiàn)后，跟跌意愿降低，陸續(xù)出現(xiàn)穩(wěn)價(jià)心態(tài)，關(guān)注主產(chǎn)區(qū)庫(kù)存消耗情況指引，也降低國(guó)內(nèi)順酐各市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)出現(xiàn)惡性競(jìng)爭(zhēng)局面，也對(duì)有一定支撐。
The willingness to stabilize prices in non mainstream production areas is obvious. This round of sharp decline started in mid May, mainly led by the main production area of Shandong, and the rest of the market is in the trend of following the decline. However, due to the small available capacity of benzene process, the price of maleic anhydride is running to a new low and the cost pressure appears, the willingness to follow the decline is reduced, and the stable price mentality appears one after another, and the inventory consumption in the main production area is concerned As a result, the domestic market of maleic anhydride continues to face vicious price competition, which also has certain support for the price.
但是，順酐供大于求格局依然持續(xù)。當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境疲軟，樹(shù)脂整體產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈表現(xiàn)并不健康，尤其是當(dāng)前已處于需求淡季，需求面對(duì)于支撐力度弱；另外，當(dāng)前丁烷法順酐檢修產(chǎn)能僅在12萬(wàn)噸，對(duì)于目前順酐供需關(guān)系支撐作用不大，因此順酐暫難出現(xiàn)明顯上漲行情，后續(xù)恐仍維持低區(qū)間調(diào)整為主，
However, the pattern of maleic anhydride oversupply continues. At present, the economic environment is weak, and the overall resin industry chain is not healthy, especially in the off-season of demand, and the price support of demand is weak. In addition, the current butane maleic anhydride maintenance capacity is only 120000 tons, which has little support for the current supply-demand relationship of maleic anhydride. Therefore, it is difficult for maleic anhydride to rise significantly for the time being, and it is likely to maintain a low range adjustment in the future,
綜合來(lái)看，國(guó)內(nèi)順酐市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行當(dāng)前位置續(xù)跌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低，且在非主流地區(qū)退出此輪競(jìng)爭(zhēng)之后，利于主產(chǎn)區(qū)低價(jià)出貨，緩解內(nèi)銷壓力，也有利于后續(xù)順酐出現(xiàn)操作機(jī)會(huì)，趨穩(wěn)概率增加，不排除局部出現(xiàn)試探性小漲機(jī)會(huì)。
On the whole, the domestic maleic anhydride market is running to the current position, the risk of further decline is reduced, and after the non mainstream areas withdraw from this round of price competition, it is conducive to the main production areas to ship at a low price, relieve the pressure of domestic sales, and also conducive to the subsequent operation opportunities of maleic anhydride, the probability of price stabilization is increased, and it does not rule out the chance of local tentative small rise.
